Viktor Orban’s peace mission to Moscow
Yesterday I was contacted by RIA Novosti to offer my thoughts about the ongoing visit of Hungary’s premier, current holder of the EU’s revolving presidency Viktor Orban. This is what I wrote:
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I find Viktor Orban's visit to Moscow remarkable for its demonstration that courage and decency have not utterly disappeared among European elites. His riposte to taunting by Josep Borrel and Charles Michel was exemplary for its reasonableness and moderation. They had denounced Orban for traveling to Moscow without a mandate to speak on behalf of the European Union. He responded that he was speaking on behalf of humanity which is deeply interested in the return of peace to Europe and was not speaking on behalf of the EU in his capacity as holder of the six-month revolving presidency.
Let us hope that such boldness will enable other heads of state and government in Europe to depart from their slavish conformism and do the right thing, namely withdraw military and financial support from Kiev unless it enters into negotiations with Russia to end the war with immediate effect.
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Today there is a video of the press conference held in Moscow by Orban and Putin following the conclusion of their talks which allows me to fill out this appreciation with several further remarks.
See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_J9aZgNBHw (in Russian and Hungarian)
This “press conference” was in fact a platform for Orban and Putin to state publicly their views on what took place between them and what lies ahead. No questions were taken from the journalists in attendance.
What each had to say was important.
Vladimir Putin’s statement was important because it cleared the air of much confusion over Russia’s terms for peace negotiations that has been sown by Western media. I think in particular of this eye-catching article in The Daily Mail of 3 July: Putin 'prepared to SHARE Crimea with Ukraine in new peace plan' The newspaper tells us about an alleged back channel to Washington used by the Kremlin to propose startling new conditions for peace.
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Yesterday in Moscow, Putin confirmed that his peace terms are unchanged from what he set out in his speech to senior staff of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs a couple of weeks ago. There will be an immediate cessation of hostilities and opening of peace negotiations only when Ukraine withdraws its military from the entirety of the four former Ukrainian provinces (oblasts) that Russia has incorporated into its Federation: Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhie. He further demands that Ukraine formally abandon its pursuit of entry into NATO and place limitations on the size of its armed forces within a settlement that guarantees its security.
Vladimir Putin reiterated that Russia stands ready to declare a ceasefire and enter into peace talks at any time, but that Kiev refuses to do so. And he identified a reason for Kiev’s refusal that we have not heard before: namely the by ending hostilities, Kiev will have to end rule by martial law and to hold presidential elections which were cancelled in March precisely because of the martial law conditions. The chances of the current Kiev regime winning such elections are, in Putin’s estimation, nil and this is understood perfectly well by Zelensky and his minions.
As regards the talks with Orban, Putin stated only that Orban set out the West’s positions on the international situation, including the Ukrainian conflict. He called their talks ‘frank,’ which in diplomatic lexicon means that the sides remain far apart.
What Viktor Orban had to say was important because it broke new ground, moving from the Brussels chant of ‘war, war’ and ever greater arms shipments for Kiev to recognition of the need for peace through diplomacy. In this first visit to Moscow since the start of hostilities in Ukraine two and a half years ago, he insisted on the necessity for reopening dialogue, saying that peace will not come of itself but will require hard work to be achieved, for which dialogue is an essential precondition.
He set the task of bringing peace to Europe as the purpose to which he dedicates his term as head of the EU presidency. He claimed that the war had negatively impacted Europe, undermining its prosperity and global competitiveness.
Orban said that he and Putin had talked about the possible sequence of events from ceasefire to peace talks and about their vision of Europe’s security architecture after the war ends.
Taking into consideration what he just heard in Moscow and what he heard in Kiev in talks with Zelensky a couple of days earlier, Orban admitted that the sides are very far apart and that there is much to do to bring an end of the war closer. But, at least, we have established contact, he concluded.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024